118,000. That’s the number of new, full-time equivalent jobs that increased energy efficiency will create if the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) is implemented as planned, according to a new Dunsky study.
The PCF is the governing framework for climate change mitigation in Canada, but little was known about the actual impact it will have on the economy. Until now. Clean Energy Canada and Efficiency Canada commissioned Dunsky to assess how the PCF’s energy efficiency commitments will impact jobs and GDP across the country, using sophisticated macroeconomic modelling of every Canadian province from here through 2030.
Dunsky developed two policy scenarios: the PCF energy efficiency actions and a “stretch” scenario to assess what would happen if provinces were even more ambitious when it comes to investing in energy efficiency. Dunsky then partnered with the Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE) to conduct macroeconomic modelling for every province individually, and for the country as a whole.
The results of the study show that the energy efficiency actions in the PCF will deliver, between now and 2030, a significant net benefit to the Canadian economy: 118,000 new jobs (average annual full-time equivalents) and a 1% boost in GDP over the baseline forecast. Of course, to avoid bias, all modelling results are “net”, i.e. they fully account for both savings and costs; for new jobs gained and for ones that are lost in the transition.
Much of the net benefits stem from anticipated consumer savings: individuals would save $1.4 billion annually – or $114 per year per household – off their energy bills, money that will be recirculated across the economy. Meanwhile, business (and governments) would save, on average, $3.2 billion each year, improving their productivity and heightening competitiveness.
Finally, the PCF actions in our scenario reduce GHG emissions by 52 Mt annually, which is 25% of Canada’s Paris commitment.
We found that every province benefits from the PCF’s energy efficiency commitment, and that the employment gains from the energy efficiency investments and reinvested savings are spread across the economy. Still, about half of new jobs fall within the construction, trade, and manufacturing sectors.
All in all, a very positive outcome and important tool for stakeholders trying to better understand the economic impact of energy efficiency and federal and provincial climate actions.